As time progresses, we seem to be getting better quality data about what is really going on with the virus. So despite what the news is predominately catastrophizing about…
…The USA now being the epicenter of the coronavirus! https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/the-us-now-leads-the-world-in-confirmed-coronavirus-cases/ar-BB11LlDh
…With projections of 81,000 people dead! https://news.trust.org/item/20200326232240-2yx1f
I’m feeling a lot more relaxed about it for reasons I’ll share with you here. Even if it was indeed a weaponized virus, it doesn’t seem that effective!
Italy says that of those dying 99% of them had other illnesses. And the median age of the infected is 63 but 79.5 years for those who die. In addition, “All of Italy’s victims under 40 have been males with serious existing medical conditions.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says
While they say they haven’t peaked in Italy yet, there were “signs of a slowdown”. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-contagion-idUSKBN21E1U8
The epidemiologist Neil Ferguson modeled the virus and projected 2.2. million dead in the US and 500K in the UK. This information was widely reported by the media and used by governments. Yesterday, he announced that he drastically downgraded the prediction.
“Based on both those revised estimates and the lockdown measures taken by the British government, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments.” https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model
To be clear, while downgraded, he is giving credit to the quarantine and social distancing for the effects.
I found this page from a Swiss Doctor giving daily updates which has some great information. This is published on a website for Swiss Propaganda Research which “is an independent nonprofit research group investigating geopolitical propaganda in Swiss and international media.” https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
I invite you to check out that page, but here are a few items of interest pulled from it. One of the things I was wondering about was how many deaths normally occurred in Italy as compared to what was happening now? The answer to that question is found here.
“According to the latest data published by the Italian Ministry of Health, overall mortality is now significantly higher in all age groups over 65 years of age, after having been below average due to the mild winter. Until March 14, overall mortality was still below the flu season of 2016/2017, but may have already exceeded it in the meantime. Most of this excess mortality currently comes from northern Italy. However, the exact role of Covid19, compared to other factors such as panic, healthcare collapse and the lockdown itself, is not yet clear.”
Look at this chart. While mortality is still trending up, it is less than other times in previous years where no lockdown was done.
“Sweden has so far pursued the most liberal strategy in dealing with Covid19, which is based on two principles: Risk groups are protected and people with flu symptoms stay at home. “If you follow these two rules, there is no need for further measures, the effect of which is only marginal anyway,” said chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell. Social and economic life will continue normally. The big rush to hospitals has so far failed to materialize, Tegnell said.”
“USA: Researcher Stephen McIntyre has evaluated the official data on deaths from pneumonia in the US. There are usually between 3000 and 5500 deaths per week and thus significantly more than the current figures for Covid19. The total number of deaths in the US is between 50,000 and 60,000 per week.”
Compare the above to the total death count of Covid-19 in the USA of 1304 at the time of writing.
“John Lee, Professor Emeritus of Pathology, argues that the particular way in which Covid-19 cases are registered leads to an overestimation of the risk posed by Covid19 compared to normal flu and cold cases.”
“A preliminary study by researchers at Stanford University showed that 20 to 25% of Covid19-positive patients tested additionally positive for other influenza or cold viruses.”
“A study from China in 2003 concluded that the probability of dying from SARS is 84% higher in people exposed to moderate air pollution than in patients from regions with clean air. The risk is even 200% higher among people from areas with heavily polluted air.”
This last bit is very interesting because the air pollution in places like Wuhan and northern Italy is some of the worst out there.
Meanwhile, there continues to be questions about accuracy of all the different forms of testing. “Spanish scientists said the rapid tests for coronavirus they reviewed were less than 30% accurate. The more established lab tests were about 84% accurate.” https://apnews.com/94d68c23955a4d7222f6b9cb47ea89cc
While I’m feeling good about the virus itself, make no mistake, that I’m not feeling super positive about the whole situation. (And that doesn’t mean you should throw caution to the wind or go coughing on food like some are doing.)
That’s because I don’t think the media, nor the government is going to lay off their actions anytime soon.
Even if the deaths aren’t any higher than normal pneumonia rates, the government will take credit for great success with the quarantine in the end.
I’m about 98% sure the length of the quarantine, where and how its enforced will continue to be extended and expanded.
But I do want to end on a positive note. I also want to share this from someone near where the breakout occurred…
“I am one of your subscribers. I am currently in China, in Hubei Province, 5 hours away from Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus breakout. We went into quarantine here in the city I am in, officially February 1st. It was something I have never experienced before. But, after roughly 45 days, the restrictions are being lifted in stages as the virus has been contained and is declining. I will say that it was never a human rights issue. It was for the good of all. The logistics that were put in place for the basics: food, water, safety, human communication (not isolation) was done efficiently and safely. For your readers, everything you said in your email, especially training at home, is very important. It will eventually pass. The key thing, and I admit I had some days where I was challenged with it as the weather was beautiful outside, is to take it one day at a time. That expression is used a lot, but now many people will experience it for real. Also, one’s patience will be put to the test too, especially if there are many members living together under one roof. One has to breathe deeply everyday as well in order to help with the stress. The key here is to follow the procedures put in place by the government and health officials. Or, just use plain common sense. I know that sometimes younger people think they are invincible. Not with this virus. It is dangerous so I would urge all of the “Supermen/Women” out there not to challenge it. Usually not a pleasant experience. One of my colleagues, age 51, died from it. Doctors on the front line, also paid for it with their lives. So, proper hygiene, good healthy eating, drinking a lot of water, exercise, visualization and positive thinking, staying connected with like-minded positive people, will get people through this. As my mother always tells us: “This too shall pass.”
Good luck to everyone who reads this. I survived by doing what I said above and following procedures. Now I can go outside freely again (wearing a mask)…Good Luck to everyone!!”
God speed,
Thomas
Although there will be a “new normal” when that occurs, let’s hope we get there sooner rather than later.
P.S. Yesterday’s email about surveillance started off talking about Edward Snowden. Well, he’s just come out saying pretty much the same thing. https://www.cnet.com/news/snowden-warns-government-surveillance-amid-covid-19-could-be-long-lasting/